Practicum Experience(s)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2024)
Summary of Research
Uncertainty is a fundamental feature of ecological systems and their management: knowledge of the system state and its dynamics is imperfect, actions have uncertain consequences, and factors like climate change will alter the environment in ways that can be hard to predict. My dissertation represents a range of approaches to uncertainty in ecology and conservation, from improving inference about complex biological systems to optimizing management actions that alter stochastic dynamics:
1. Reducing uncertainty about the system state can be accomplished through improved models, including hierarchical and state-space frameworks that distinguish process dynamics from imperfect measurements. Yet analyzing populations impacted by both process noise and observation error remains a difficult computational and statistical task, particularly in scenarios where measurement error is large and demography is complex.
2. Often uncertainty cannot be reduced, so decisions must be made in the face of uncertainty. These decisions are challenging, as biological systems are stochastic, nonlinear, and often non-stationary, yet inappropriate strategies can lead to ecologically, economically, and socially unacceptable outcomes.
3. Uncertainty can also be generated through data disparities that reflect legacies of social and political inequity. How this uncertainty propagates in decision-making to produce poor decision outcomes remains largely unexplored.
As a researcher, I aim to change the way policy makers and practitioners think about conservation decisions and to provide insight into how we can infer complex ecological dynamics from imperfect observations. Another focus of my research is to narrow the research-implementation gap by developing decision-support tools and software that bring advanced analytical capabilities to a wider audience.
Annual Program Review Abstracts
Publications
Keller, A.G. and Kelly, R.P. eDNAjoint: an R package for interpreting paired or semi-paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework. (2025) Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 00, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.70000
Keller, A.G., Counihan, T.D., Grosholz, E.D., Boettiger, C. The transition from resistance to acceptance: managing a marine invasive species in a changing world. (2025) Journal of Applied Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14881
Goldstein, B.R., Keller, A.G., Calhoun, K.L., Barker, K.J., Montealegre-Mora, F., Serota, M.W., Van Scoyoc, A., Parker-Shames, P., Androzzi, C., de Valpine, P. (2024) How do ecologists estimate occupancy in practice? Ecography. e07402. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07402
Betters, M., Stabbins, A., Keller, A.G., Cordes, E.E. (2023) Biogeography and depth partitioning in deep-sea gastropods at the Pacific Costa Rica Margin. Journal of Biogeography. 50(12), 2109-2121. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14722
Montealegre-Mora, F., Chapman, M., Keller, A.G., Lapeyolerie, M., Boettiger, C. (2023). Pretty darn good control: when are approximate solutions better than approximate models? Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 85, 95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-023-01198-5
Keller, A.G., Dahlhoff, E.P., Bracewell, R., Chatla, K., Bachtrog, D., Rank, N.E., Williams, CM. (2023). Multi-locus genomic signatures of local adaptation to snow across the landscape in California populations of the willow leaf beetle. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 290(2005). https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2023.0630
Keller, A.G., Grason, E. McDonald, P.S., Ramon-Laca, A., Kelly, R.P. (2022). Tracking an invasion front with environmental DNA. Ecological Applications. e2561. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2561
Jacobs-Palmer, E., Gallego, R., Cribari, K., Keller A.G., Kelly, R.P. (2021). Environmental DNA Metabarcoding for Simultaneous Monitoring and Ecological Assessment of Many Harmful Algal Bloom Taxa. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 9: 612107. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.612107
Keller, A.G., Apprill, A., Lebaron, P., Robbins, J., Romano, T., Overton, E., Yuan, R., Rong, Y., Pollara, S., Whalen, K. (2021). Characterizing the culturable surface microbiomes of diverse marine animals. FEMS Microbiology Ecology. 97, fiab040. https://doi.org/10.1093/femsec/fiab040
Goffredi, S.K., Tilic, E., Mullin, S.W., Dawson, K.S., Keller, A.G., Lee, R.W., Wu, F., Levin, L.A., Rouse, G., Cordes, E.E., Orphan, V.J. (2020). Methanotrophic bacterial symbionts fuel dense populations of deep-sea feather duster worms (Sabellida, Annelida) and extend the spatial influence of methane seepage. Science Advances. 6: eaay8562. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay8562
Auscavitch, S.R., Deere, M.C., Keller, A.G., Rotjan, R.D., Shank, T.M., Cordes, E.E. (2020). Oceanographic Drivers of Deep-Sea Coral Species Distribution and Community Assembly on Seamounts, Islands, Atolls, and Reefs Within the Phoenix Islands Protected Area. Frontiers in Marine Science. 7:42. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00042
Awards
McKernan Award for Most Outstanding Master's Thesis, University of Washington, 2021
Irving Finger Prize in Biology, Haverford College, 2017
NCAA Centennial Athletic Conference Academic Honor Roll, Haverford College, 2014-2016